Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
